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see also Google's updating news page for oil prices
In addition, every day, from Energy Bulletin, see the Daily Energy Headlines
First report from the House of Commons All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil
pdf file "... Looking forward, we can either plan an orderly energy descent strategy or we can refuse to accept that the era of cheap energy is drawing to a close and continue business as usual. Either way, energy policies and funding choices made now will have lasting consequences for future generations Read in full or see below
LINKS

"Association for the Study of Peak Oil International"
"Eating Fossil Fuels" FromTheWilderness.com
"Energy Bulletin" Peak Oil related articles
"Global Oil Watch" - Extensive peak oil library
"Mazama Science" - A visual review of production and consumption trends for individual nations; data from the 2008 BP Statistical Review.
"Peak Oil For Dummies" - concise quotes from renowned politicians, oil executives, and analysts
"The Oil Age" - poster showing petroleum data in relation to peak oil
"Petroleum Data" U.S. Energy Information Agency
"Third Oil Crisis" - News from biggest news websites about the third oil crisis
"Peak Oil Crisis News" - Automatically updated news from several news websites plus a real time crude price
The End of Suburbia promo trailer (new window)

"...If energy weren' t very important then it wouldn' t matter that you have a need for 100 and a supply of 70. But since energy is the one thing that makes our entire global economy work ... when you start having that sort of mismatch, the bullies get to the front of the line and take it first. The urgency of this blows away this sort of vague worry about global warming: I don' t know anybody who thinks that' s an issue that will affect our lives in the next 15 or 20 years. If we don' t solve this in 10 years, it' s too late." Matthew Simmons (source)

November 2008 ~ Latest news this month see below for more and see also Google's updating news page for oil prices
In addition, every day, from Energy Bulletin, see the Daily Energy Headlines "Oil is so important that the peak will have vast implications across the realms of geopolitics, lifestyle, agriculture and economic stability... there is nothing in the pipeline to replace these losses as our usage increases five times faster than discovery..."
MP Chloe Fox said: "I urge people to please go on the internet, go to Google, type in the words 'peak oil theory', and if you read what I have read, you will not be able to sleep at night." (Extract from Australia Hansard Tuesday 5 June 2007 )

What is "Peak Oil"?
Latest News in the press (Daily since April 2004)
(See also Guardian report on renewable energy) ASPO Books and websites The Hirsch Report (pdf new window)
Depletion Protocol Dr. Colin Campbell's presentation April 2005.

"Our long-standing addiction to cheap oil has cost us dearly in terms of health, global security, human rights and a changing climate.
It has also long stifled investment and innovation in alternative energy sources and technologies.
Maybe we should look at expensive gas as an opportunity rather than a crisis."
Mitchell Anderson - staff scientist with the Sierra Legal Defence Fund in Vancouver.

Congressman Roscoe Bartlett's Special Order Speech OUR DEPENDENCE ON FOREIGN OIL (warmwell page as HTML) House of Representatives April 20, 2005 The latest GAO report March 2007 (link http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07283.pdf) reveals that the United States is particularly vulnerable and the United States federal government is unprepared to respond to severe consequences from an increasing risk of significant disruptions to world oil supplies from peak oil ...
Member States of the EEC have to maintain minimum stocks of crude oil and/or petroleum products Directive

Matthew Simmons March 2008 :".. I think prices have to go way higher. The sooner people get used to the fact that we are still living in a fool' s paradise, the better ... you just can not argue that $100 a barrel is expensive when you realize it is 15 cents a cup - do you know anything other than crude oil that sells for 15 cents a cup? I know wine doesn' t, bottled water doesn' t."

(See also Google's updating news page for oil prices)
14 Nov 2008 ~EU plan to loosen Russia' s grip on energy
"The European Commission has proposed a new company to bring gas from central Asia to Europe via the Caspian Sea in a move likely to raise tensions at Friday' s meeting of EU and Russian leaders. The Caspian route, which would require the construction of a new pipeline, would enable the EU to bypass Russia in order to access the resources of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, which last month announced it had discovered one of the world' s biggest gas fields. The plan was launched as a centrepiece of an energy security plan that seeks to cut EU member states' reliance on Russia. The strategic energy review comes at a delicate time as the EU will on Friday try to restart talks with Russia over economic and energy agreements that were cancelled in the wake of its invasion of Georgia in August. It also comes after steep rises in energy prices, and internal squabbling over an EU climate package that would force member states to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20 per cent by 2020..... The proposals outline a network of pipelines that would carry gas from the Caspian region, including the Nabucco project, for a pipeline from eastern Turkey to Austria.
Read FT article
14 Nov 2008 ~ Oil prices will soar
Straits Times "Oil prices could soar dramatically after the world economy picks up due to delays in energy investment during the credit crisis, the head of the International Energy Agency warned on Friday.
The Paris-based agency on Thursday slashed its forecast for oil prices in 2009 to US$80 (S$121) from US$110 a barrel as developed economies brace for recession. But it also warned that the price could jump to more than US$200 a barrel by 2030 as demand soars in China, India and other emerging economies. 'What we are worried about is that oil development is being delayed', IEA executive director Nobuo Tanaka told a news conference in Tokyo. 'As supply falls, prices are likely to surge when the global economy gets back on its feet', he said. .."

13 Nov 2008 ~ IEA warns of oil supply crunch
The Independent "The world faces an oil supply crunch that could push prices above this summer's eye-watering 147 dollars per barrel high if falling prices put the brakes on exploration and production expansion, the International Energy Agency said yesterday. Although global energy demand projections are slightly lower than last year because of the economic slowdown, delayed spending on new projects such as the exploitation of Canadian tar sands will cause supply problems that could choke economic recovery. Nobuo Tanaka, the executive director, said: "We cannot let the financial and economic crisis delay the policy action that is urgently needed to ensure secure energy supplies and to curtail rising emissions of greenhouse gases."

November 9 2008 ~ "will global crude demand really fall?"
Telegraph ".... Oil use in the fast-growing, populous emerging markets - which now represent almost half of total world crude demand - grew 5pc last year.
Even if the big Eastern economies slow, their collective GDP will still expand around 5 to 6pc next year - meaning millions more newly-affluent consumers will enter the energy-intensive world of car ownership, air-conditioning and protein-rich diets. In my view, such "structural" rises in Eastern energy use will offset any "cyclical" fall in the West, keeping oil demand firm.
The supply side of the energy market looks even less likely to provide rate-slashers with comfort. The Opec cartel is alive and kicking, having just cut global oil sales by 2pc. More credible evidence is also emerging that supplies of the world's largest oil fields are declining faster than previously thought.
Consider also that recent falls in oil prices, combined with the credit crunch, will cut energy infrastructure investment, undermining future supplies even more. Last week, BG Group postponed "indefinitely" a multi billion-dollar investment in Karachaganak - one of Kazakhstan's biggest oil and gasfields.
One reason oil has fallen lately is the stronger dollar - seeing as crude is priced in US currency. The dollar's recent mini-rally, in turn, has been driven by a "rush from risk" in which US-based and other dollar-denominated asset managers have turned away from emerging markets. But that episode of "dollar repatriation" is now over. And when the dollar starts falling again - as it will - oil will crank back up.
The recent dip in crude prices is a temporary downswing in a much longer-term trend. That trend most definitely points up, a reality we ignore at our peril."

October 24 2008 ~ The oil price has plummeted by more than half from its all-time high of $147 per barrel in July
www.independent.co.uk ".... Opec has already cut production this autumn, but to no avail. The price dipped below $80 for the first time since August 2007 last week - triggering today's extraordinary session - and is continuing its slide. Despite yesterday's gains, prices for North Sea Brent and US crude, for December delivery, were both below $70 per barrel.
The big question today is the size of any production cut, an issue on which Opec members are split. Last week the Qatari oil minister anticipated reduction in supply of more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd), and his Ecuadorean counterpart was quoting an ideal price of $80 per barrel. This week a Libyan government official described the market as "flooded" and questioned whether a 1 million bpd cut would be sufficient. By yesterday, the Iranian oil minister, Gholamhossein Nozari, was touting a 2 million bpd reduction..
But some of Opec's biggest members, including Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, are less bullish, emphasising that any measures must take into account the global financial crisis. More expensive energy will strengthen the recessionary tendencies in economies across the developed world, putting even greater pressure on prices. ."

October 12 2008 ~ In 2006, Dr. Colin Campbell, geologist, former Vice-President of Fina Oil Company and founder of ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil) foresaw the current financial meltdown.
On a video interview [here] available on YouTube, he said:
"Expansion becomes impossible without abundant cheap energy. So I think that the debt of the world is going bad. That speaks of a financial crisis, unseen, probably equalling the Great Depression of 1930; it's probable we face the Second Great Depression. It would be a chain reaction, one bank would fail, and another one would fail, industries will close…"
Thanks to www.ireport.com

October 3 2008 ~ Matt Simmons: Oil and Gas -- The Next Meltdown? (video and audio)
"Drawing parallels with the current financial meltdown, Matthew Simmons, the CEO of Simmons & Company International, expresses his alarm about gasoline stocks being the lowest in several decades and refinery production down following recent hurricanes. He warns that if there were a run on the "energy bank" by everyone topping off their gasoline tanks, the U.S. would be out of fuel in three days, and grocery shelves largely emptied in a week. ..."

September 30 2008 ~ Oil fell below $100 on 700 dollar bailout rejection
Oil prices tumbled by more than $10 a barrel as the US House of Representatives failed to gather enough votes to pass the $700bn bail-out package while gold prices jumped in response to a spate of bank failures in Europe FT

September 19 2008 ~ Oil is "all over the place"
money.cnn.com ".....After falling more than $10 Monday and Tuesday on fears that the crisis on Wall Street would further reduce demand for petroleum products, crude has gained back all of its losses - and then some - from earlier in the week. Oil prices rose by $6.01 - the second-largest margin ever - Wednesday, followed by a near $1 rise Thursday as initial end-of-the-world fears continued to ease. "Oil just doesn't know what it is anymore," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Alaron Trading. "Investors aren't sure if it's a good hedge against systemic risk or not - it's all over the place."...."

September 11 2008 ~ "Opec's decision to cut supplies risks keeping oil prices at very high levels
cutting short a fall from July's record price, the International Energy Agency warned on Wednesday. Washington also criticised the oil cartel's move, which came less than 60 days before US elections in which voters are citing high energy prices as one of their top concerns..." FT

September 9 2008 ~ "....physical reality and economic theory part company in many instances, and Peak Oil defines one of the most important of these"
Richard Heinberg "Is peak oil "A Misleading Concept?" "......Departing from reality sometimes has severe consequences. I must return to that word "misleading." The economists are telling us we have nothing to worry about. Oil may get a bit more expensive, but there will always be plenty of liquid fuel to keep us going - to keep the planes flying, the tractors plowing, and the SUVs ferrying kids to soccer practice. If these people are wrong (and I strongly believe they are), they are not just "misleading" us conceptually; they are guiding us straight over a cliff." (8 September 2008)

September 9 2008 ~ Oil has fallen nearly 30 percent from a record peak of $147.27 a barrel
Reuters SA "Oil prices fell to a new five-month low on Tuesday, pressured by a rise in the U.S. dollar and expectations that OPEC will not cut output when it meets later in the day. U.S. crude for October delivery was down $1.39 a barrel at $104.95 by 0931 GMT, after briefly falling more than $2 to touch a new five-month low of $104.23 a barrel. London Brent crude was $1.41 down at $102.03 a barrel, closing in on the $100 mark. The dollar's rise to a one-year peak against a basket of currencies has spurred a shift away from commodities that has driven down prices across the spectrum. Oil is under pressure despite the potential threat from Hurricane Ike, which is headed towards the U.S. Gulf and offshore oil fields that produce a quarter of U.S. oil and 15 percent of its natural gas. "If it weren't for the hurricanes, oil should be below $100 a barrel, considering the sentiment," said Tetsu Emori, fund manager at Astmax Co Ltd...."

August 28 2008 ~ "Oil prices rose as traders kept close watch on the progress of tropical storm Gustav ..."
FT "..amid mounting concerns that it could affect oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Gustav was downgraded from a hurricane to a tropical storm after coming ashore in Haiti but weather forecasters predict it will regain hurricane strength...."

August 26 2008 ~ Mexico's Cantarell oil output falls again in July
Reuters "Crude output from Mexico's struggling Cantarell oil field fell for the 10th month in a row in July to 974,000 barrels per day, energy ministry data showed on Tuesday..."

August 22 2008 ~ a move that all but erases hopes that the cost of gasoline will keep falling
Los Angeles Times "A weaker dollar and rising tensions between Russia and the West sent oil prices roaring more than $5 a barrel higher Thursday, a move that all but erases hopes that the cost of gasoline will keep falling....Jim Ritterbusch, president of an oil trading advisory firm in Galena, Ill., said the Russian conflict "injected a fresh round of geopolitical risk premium" into the price of oil...."

August 17 2008 ~"Less publicised were the Russian missile strikes near the Baku- Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, one of several arteries in the the Caucasus that bring oil and gas to the west.
Telegraph Some 50 missiles struck within a few hundred metres of this key oil transit route. There is no evidence that the Russians intended to hit the BTC, which is 30 per cent-owned by BP, the UK energy major. But it was a salutary warning at a time when the European Union is desperate to reduce its dependency on Russian oil and gas...
According to Samuel Ciszuk, an analyst at Global Insight: "The entire route of the BTC, the only major oil pipeline from the Caspian region outside of Russia's control, should now be treated as high-risk, and Turkey's viability as an energy bridge to Europe has been thrown into question."....
.Russia is no longer a military superpower, but its vast natural resources mean it will become an energy superpower over the next decade. Russia's state energy giant, Gazprom, produces 85 per cent of the country's natural gas and controls 17 per cent of the world's reserves. The European Union gets 25 per cent of its gas from Russia, and that is set to rise. Britain's proposal to build a new generation of nuclear power stations is a race to diversify energy supplies and reduce dependency on Russia and the Middle East. But until these reactors start coming on stream, from 2017 at the earliest, Britain, with its North Sea reserves dwindling fast, will have to look to places like Kazakhstan if it wants alternatives to Russia. "

August 16 2008 ~ "Charlie Hall: How much oil and gas will increased drilling provide? Geology's Answer: Not Much."
(The Oil Drum) "...... The answer seems inescapable: the rate of drilling for oil in the United States has been unrelated to finding or producing oil and gas, which is determined principally by geology. Mother nature, not market theory, determines resource availability, at least in this case and probably many more." See also Charles Hall website.

August 14 2008 ~ Oil prices rebounded on Wednesday
says the FT "leading grains and base metals higher, after US weekly inventories data showed unexpectedly large declines in crude oil and product stocks. Nymex September West Texas Intermediate rose $4.13 to $117.14 a barrel after touching a session high of $117.43 while ICE September Brent added $3.54 at $114.69 a barrel. .."

Aug 4 2008 ~ Crude oil fell below $120 a barrel for the first time since May
Bloomberg "Crude oil fell below $120 a barrel for the first time since May amid speculation that Tropical Storm Edouard will miss most offshore oil facilities as it approaches the coast of Texas....The commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, Brigadier General Mohammad-Ali Ja'fari, announced the weapons test today on state-run news services. He also reiterated a warning that Iran could respond to any attack by closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which a quarter of the world's oil is exported...."

July 24 2008 ~ Crude and food falls help lift equities
Oil prices continued to fall, dropping below $125 for the first time in six weeks and fuelling declines in other commodities that hit record highs earlier in the month such as corn and soyabeans FT "Stuart Schweitzer, global markets strategist at JPMorgan Private Bank, said stocks were benefiting from the fall in oil prices. “Slower global growth should arrest the oil price rise and reduce the broader fear of inflation. World growth has slowed to a point where it is capturing the attention of the oil market,” he said Francisco Blanch, head of commodities research at Merrill Lynch, said that although some of the fundamental supply and demand pressures governing commodity prices were improving, oil prices are likely to remain volatile. Oil prices on Wednesday fell to an intraday low of $124.56 a barrel, down almost $4 on the day. Analysts were cautious about calling the peak of the commodities market, recalling that there had been similar retreats last summer when the credit crisis broke, and in March this year, which later proved short-lived...."

July 24 2008 ~ Arctic has 90bn barrels of crude
Reuters says, "The Arctic Circle holds an estimated 90 billion barrels of recoverable oil, enough supply to meet current world demand for almost three years, the U.S. Geological Survey forecast on Wednesday. The forecast comes as Russia is competing with Canada, Denmark, Norway and the United States to grab a chunk of the huge energy resources in the Arctic, an area growing more accessible due to global warming melting the ice. The government agency also said the area could contain 1,670 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas...."

July 16 2008 ~Arctic exploration “The chip in the Play- station 3 is equivalent to what was in a super computer five years ago..”
The FT reports that no one knows the extent of US oil and natural gas reserves in the offshore and Arctic areas that are still off-limits to drilling. The technology used in the 1980s super computers to make surveys is out of date but the oil and gas industry is not going to use expensive new technology to study protected areas unless they are open to production. FT
“It costs a lot of money to take a look,” Mr McClure said. “Nobody wants to take a look unless you could get a return.” .... With oil prices rising sharply, polls show most Americans want Congress to lift the offshore ban if it would help reduce prices at the pump. John McCain, the Republican presidential candidate, advocates scrapping the ban while Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate, opposes it, saying any extra oil and gas produced would take years to develop and further encourage fossil fuel use...."

July 15 2008 ~ First report from the House of Commons All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil
pdf file "...the following recommendations are made:

Support and fund a Working Group on energy security and international development to undertake contingency planning on the impact of Peak Oil in developing countries, and humanitarian response capacity
Make local energy security a donor funding criteria to encourage organisations to adopt appropriate technologies and designs
Initiate wider dialogue and action planning within the UN and other leading donors on questions of energy security
Fund research and training that builds capacity in local food and energy security that is independent from fossil fuel imports - disseminated across the humanitarian and development sector.
Many proactive strategies exist to manage this transition to sustainable, low carbon communities. They should be integrated into humanitarian and development funding priorities and criteria.
A shift from an industrialised agriculture system to one based on ecologically sound principles and free from petro-chemical inputs is essential. Similarly, energy efficient dwellings that have minimal environmental impact are necessary.
Donors and humanitarian and development agencies are encouraged to assess their position regarding energy and food security and how they may engage in the transition to a low carbon future.
We live in an era of supreme comfort and technology - on an unmatched pinnacle of energy consumption and resource use. Looking forward, we can either plan an orderly energy descent strategy or we can refuse to accept that the era of cheap energy is drawing to a close and continue business as usual. Either way, energy policies and funding choices made now will have lasting consequences for future generations Read in full

July 15 2008 ~ Bush lifts oil exploration ban
FT "George W. Bush lifted an executive order banning oil exploration in US waters on Monday, ratcheting up pressure on Congress to give its consent to ending the 28-year moratorium on offshore drilling. ... . The White House estimates that about 18bn barrels of oil exist in the 80 per cent of US coastal waters that are off-limits to drilling - enough to match current US production for 10 years. Opponents say lifting the ban would threaten thousands of miles of coastline with oil spills and ugly infrastructure. But Mr Bush argues that modern technology would allow drilling to take place without inflicting damage on the environment...."

Monday July 14 2008 ~ "unrepentant junkies, howling for cheap petrol" - funding "a renewed mass terror"
Johann Hari, in a deeply shocking piece in today's Independent, quotes a woman from the Niger Delta
"I'd like people all over the world to realise there's a segment of humanity suffering as a result of oil production - ordinary men, women, children. They should think about them and not think simply of energy. Think of us as people. That's more important than anything."
The price of obtaining our fix of cheap oil in the future should be known. The article - and that in Vanity Fair too - reveal the staggering price in human misery and exploitation
"... two possible responses now. The first is to meet Mend (Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta)and the Delta's demands: let the people have a fair share of their own oil profits. The second is to violently suppress the population with a renewed mass terror. Enter Gordon Brown. Last week, he offered Britain's help to achieve the second option. He offered British troops to "train" Nigeria's "security forces" so they can "restore order" and get the oil flowing fast again. ....He is reacting to pressure from you..."
Read in full and see original article at Vanity Fair, Blood Oil.

July 10 2008 ~ "Oil prices rose on Wednesday after long-range missile tests by Iran stoked fears of conflict in the region."
FT "Iran said the missiles could reach Israel or US bases in the region.... Iran is the world's fourth-biggest oil producer and is next to the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for world oil supply. ... Worries that Israel might strike nuclear facilities in Iran helped oil surge above $145 a barrel last week. Iranian officials said that, if attacked, they would impose controls on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, used by 40 per cent of the world's seaborne oil trade. The US Navy has vowed to block any Iranian effort to shut the Strait..."

July 9 2008 ~ New York contract struck a record high of 145.85 dollars and Brent hit an all-time peak of 146.69 dollars last Thursday.
"SINGAPORE (AFP) - Oil prices rose in Asian trading on Tuesday while leaders of the world's rich industrial nations warned of the dangers of soaring oil prices and called for an increase in oil production. New York's main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for August delivery, was 91 cents higher at 142.28 dollars a barrel after slumping 3.92 dollars to close at 141.37 dollars on Monday at the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent North Sea crude for August was 1.09 dollars higher at 142.96 dollars from a drop of 2.55 dollars to 141.87 dollars a barrel Monday in London. "It seems to me like oil traders are looking with some interest at the headlines coming out of the G8 meeting," said Dave Ernsberger, Asia director of global energy information provider Platts in Singapore. The New York contract struck a record high of 145.85 dollars and Brent hit an all-time peak of 146.69 dollars last Thursday..."

July 1 2008 ~ Crude oil sets a record high of $143.67 a barrel
FT "....The latest surge in oil, to a record $143.67 a barrel and up 49 per cent this year, came as inflation rose to a 16-year high of 4 per cent in Europe....Neil Mellor, currency strategist at The Bank of New York Mellon, said: “The risks of stagflation have simply exacerbated the inherent problems of a one-glove-fits-all monetary policy..."

July 1 2008 ~ "Saudi Arabia claims between 1.5 million and 2.0 million barrels per day of spare oil production capacity..."
(Energy Bulletin) "...There has been no outside agency auditing its statements for accuracy, so we do not know if its spare production estimate is accurate. Also, we don't know what type of oil is represented by this spare capacity. If the only crude available is very heavy, sour crude for which there is little refining capacity, the extra capacity may not be very helpful.
Saudi Arabia called a producer-consumer summit meeting on Sunday, June 22 to discuss how to stabilize prices. Saudi Arabia announced at that meeting that it will raise production by 200,000 barrels a day, apparently to 9.7 million barrels a day. At this level, crude oil production will be slightly over 2005 production of 9.55 barrels a day, but still below its 1980-81 level of production.
An increase of 200,000 barrels a day is quite small--about 0.2% of world production, so it is not clear it will make much of a difference. If the oil is very difficult to refine, this could limit the benefit further...."

June 27 2008 ~ Oil: The final warning New Scientist
Extract: "...Expensive fuel at the pumps is just the start. .... the oil market so fragile that a few well-placed explosives, an energy-sapping cold winter or an unusually intense hurricane season could send shock waves across the globe. Without oil everything stops..... "Oil has shaped our civilisation. Without crude oil you'd have no cars, no shipping, no planes," says Gideon Samid, head of the Innovation Appraisal Group (IAG) at Case Western Reserve University in Ohio. ..... sabotage to oil pipelines .... groups hostile to the US and its allies were becoming increasingly expert at mounting these attacks. ...accidents can cause serious disruption. Last year, ....an explosion in Minnesota shut down part of the 5000-kilometre Enbridge pipeline.... single incident halted one-fifth of US oil imports for days.
.. a live role-play exercise. .. ... how reliant the global oil market is on Saudi Arabia's ability to ramp up production on demand. .... Saudi Arabia's recent reluctance to increase production and the ensuing price rises in today's real-life oil market ..... we will have to start making serious attempts to wean ourselves off oil, and fast.... "It's hardly conceivable that the world could function without oil," says Didier Houssin, director of oil markets and emergency preparedness at the IEA.
Finding a replacement fuel for transport is the biggest challenge. ... "These aren't insurmountable problems, but they suggest the transition has some formidable challenges..."

June 27 2008 ~ "...Saudi Arabia has been unable to convince that it holds sufficient swing production to offset disruption in supply from elsewhere."
ODAC newsletter "....The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) later in the week that non-OPEC production is falling, but that it estimates an increased global demand for fuel of 50% by 2030 and much of that in transport fuel, is chilling. Even if such production were remotely possible the consequences for the environment would be catastrophic. Clearly the EIA does now see limits to the potential for growth in Saudi output and has reduced its forecast, but head of the organization Guy Caruso is optimistic about Russia. This is not an optimism shared by ODAC trustee David Strahan in his piece on the state of Russian oil and the BP TNK row...."

June 27 2008 ~ Natural gas is in vast supply around the world but oil is not. Crude oil production in most of the producing countries in the world is in decline.
Energy Bulletin Peter McKenzie-Brown, Oilsands Review (via Language Matters)
"......All OPEC can now do is raise prices by cutting production. They cannot lower prices by increasing production because they don't have the capacity. We are in a very pure free market situation, with prices being set by supply and demand. When I look at that dynamic, I have stopped worrying about the demand side. No matter how much the US goes into recession, for any period that is important to any of us, any decline in consumption there will be offset by increased demand elsewhere - in China and India, but also in developing countries that produce their own crude oil.....You can assume that out of global production of 87 million a day, productivity will come off by 5-10 percent every year, so you have to replace that production each year before you can even begin to satisfy global demand growth. So what we are seeing is the demise of the commodity, since we are never really going to be able to meet the demand. Prices will be volatile, but the trend in my view is that prices will continue to climb. The demand will be fully there regardless of anything that happens to the US economy. The decline is real and cannot be arrested..." Marcel Coutu of Syncrude (oil sands)

June 27 2008 ~ oil prices jumped above $140 a barrel for the first time.
FT "...Investors' fears of prolonged financial turmoil deepened on Thursday as blue-chip downgrades sent European and US shares into a tailspin and oil prices jumped above $140 a barrel for the first time. The sell-off underlined the markets' gloomy view of the financial sector amid predictions that banks and brokerages would suffer more large writedowns and be forced to cut dividends and raise capital again. Concerns over the health of the financial sector were underscored on Thursday by news that the US Federal Reserve was considering relaxing rules governing investments into banks by private equity firms to encourage capital-raising..."

June 21 2008 ~ ".....On Friday, the Prime Minister was warned by a leading academic that failure to find an eye-catching initiative for what Brown has called "the biggest problem facing the world" could make the situation worse..."
Telegraph ".. Dr Bassam Fattouh, of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, said the chances of finding a suitable solution to rocketing prices was limited because the Opec cartel of producers, western oil companies and ministers in consuming countries have conflicting views on what has caused this year's 40 per cent rise in crude oil. The summit, which will be attended by Tony Hayward, chief executive of BP, and Jeroen van der Veer of Shell, was called by Saudi Arabia after oil hit $140 per barrel. ..."

June 19 2008 ~ "We are in uncharted territory. The oil price has risen for six years in a row, the longest such period in history, and oil has never been as expensive as it is now."
Independent " ....That must have a profound effect on both supply and demand. As far as supply is concerned, the view of the western oil companies, including BP, is that this is a signal for more investment in improving the extraction rates from existing fuels and finding new ones. BP has the best record for finding oil of any company in the world, so its perspective on this deserves to be taken seriously. Nevertheless, the harsh fact remains that the world's largest single oil field, the giant Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia, was discovered back in 1948. Nothing as big has been found since. This leads into a discussion about "peak oil"..."

June 18 2008 ~ OPEC officials rule out oil output increase ahead of crisis meeting
www.monstersandcritics.com Doha - An increase in oil output by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is not needed as the current supply level exceeds demand and spiralling prices are mainly caused by speculators, OPEC officials told Deutsche Presse- Agentur dpa. ... ..view is shared by many OPEC officials, which dampens optimism about the outcome of a crisis meeting to be held in the Saudi port of Jeddah on Sunday between oil producers and consumers. .... resistance by other OPEC members to any output increase makes the Saudi task to defuse the international oil crisis harder. ...... Consumption levels are dropping across the world and economic growth is also slowing down, argues Salman, in support of keeping production at current levels. ........ Algeria's Minister of Energy and Mines Shakib Khalil told dpa from Algiers that his country and OPEC would not increase oil output as current supply levels exceed market demand by 500,000 barrels per day. .... The fuel consumption tax in consumer countries is also to blame for high prices along with the desire by oil multinationals and the US to keep prices high since low prices would lead to closure of many oilfields in Texas, Mabtul said."

June 16 2008 ~ US light crude climbed as high as $139.89 a barrel...
...as the dollar retreated from a one-month high against the euro following the release of robust eurozone inflation data and a weak report on manufacturing activity in the New York area. Oil subsequently lost ground and fell 25 cents lower at $134.61 a barrel. Investors largely shrugged off expectations that Saudi Arabia would announce a rise in output at a meeting of oil producers and consumers this weekend...." FT

June 9 2008 ~ the tone of this year's meeting as “fundamentally different” from previous occasions.
The Times "... Energy ministers from the Group of Eight (G8) industrialised nations, joined by their counterparts from China, India and South Korea, representing 65 per cent of global energy demand, described the tone of this year's meeting as “fundamentally different” from previous occasions. Instead of presenting its usual united but ineffectual demand for increased oil production to Opec with the aim of reducing prices, discussions focused on how best to curb demand.
“If we leave this situation as it is, it could lead to a recession of the world economy,” Akira Amari, the Japanese Energy Minister and host of the meeting, said. That meant, he added, that energy security, including the stability of the oil market, had become one of the top priorities for every country.
Andris Piebalgs, the European Energy Commissioner, said that the high oil price was not a passing phase, adding that “no economy should gamble on a potential return to low prices”. ..."

June 9 2008 ~ "..the world seems to be entering a grim new age of scarcity. ."
The Times ".... at what point does the crude drama become a crisis? Just where is the tipping point? Yet it is not just oil. Food and water, the most basic necessities of life so long taken for granted in the developed world, have thrust themselves on to the conference tables of the West's leaders and policymakers.
Food - its short supply in the face of rapidly rising demand and its escalating cost - is suddenly a dominant theme in the global conversation. Last week, ministers and officials from around the world met in Rome to confront a looming world crisis after the era of cheap and plentiful food was effectively declared over in last month's joint report from the United Nations and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. ...
. Even water is the subject of a torrent of concern. Last week a panel of leading global experts convened by Goldman Sachs in London to confront the “Top Five Risks” to global prosperity sounded the alert that catastrophic water shortages could prove an even bigger danger to the human race than depletion of energy supply and deficient food supplies.
.... We seem, all of a sudden, to have hit a watershed. From a rosy, optimistic era of seemingly limitless potential and boundless appetites, the world seems to be entering a grim new age of scarcity. .... Jean-Claude Trichet, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), told a conference in Barcelona last week: “From a world of seemingly unlimited resources, mankind is gradually accustoming itself to the Earth as a limited, crowded and finite space, with limited resources for extraction and a narrowing capacity for waste disposal of pollution.” Mr Trichet argued that the economics of this new world were “increasingly pushing at the boundaries of development” and required new thinking. Coming from a central bank governor, these are pretty remarkable comments.....the global struggle for finite resources that will shape world events as never before. ... As Mr Trichet hinted, we are only now beginning to glimpse the trials that lie ahead, but as they become clearer, the premium on policymakers taking tough and wise decisions will rise as sharply as the prices of resources. We must hope that our leaders can grasp these challenges before we all run out of road."

June 9 2008 ~ Iran's Opec representative, told the state broadcaster that he expected oil to reach $150 a barrel by the end of the summer.

Times "...Record surges in crude prices have propelled the world into an era in which oil may never be cheap again and energy security will become the foremost concern of governments everywhere, the G8 heard yesterday. With oil hovering just below $140 a barrel, an unprecedented gathering of the world's most voracious energy consumers ended in Japan by expressing concerns about prices. It also tacitly admitted that the old rules of energy markets must be torn up if the world was to avoid a crisis. As the meeting came to close, in Tehran a big supplier said that prices would move higher yet. Mohammad Ali Khatabi, Iran's Opec representative, told the state broadcaster that he expected oil to reach $150 a barrel by the end of the summer. .."

June 7 2008 ~ above $138 a barrel.
New York Times "The rise in oil prices turned into a stampede on Friday with futures jumping a staggering $11 a barrel to set a record above $138 a barrel. The unprecedented surge came as the dollar fell sharply against the euro and a senior Israeli politician once again raised the possibility of an attack against Iran...The latest jump came as the dollar lost more than 1 percent against the euro amid bleak economic news that fanned recession fears...."

June 6 2008 ~ " Oil prices soar to new highs ($138 and counting) as brokerage firm Morgan Stanley predicts that oil will hit $150 a barrel by July 4th..."
Huffington Post "...Needless to say, stocks are getting clobbered (with the exception of ExxonMobil). In case you haven't been watching CNBC lately, there's a Great Oil Debate going on. On one side is the "Peak Oil" crowd, who believe that the world has now reached its maximum daily oil output and that increasing demand--which is already outpacing supply--will now drive oil prices into the stratosphere. On the other side is the "Evil Speculator" crowd, which argues that big energy traders are "gaming" the energy markets and adding at least a $30-$40 speculation premium to each barrel. Who's right? The truth is no one knows (and anyone who confidently asserts that they do is fooling themselves). Part of the problem is that no one knows exactly how much oil the world is producing, or what the world's actual daily consumption is. What's more, no one knows what the "intrinsic" value is of a barrel of oil....."

June 6 2008 ~ "... supply and demand as a far bigger factor..."
Washington Post "... Even as record oil prices translate into staggering increases at the pump, some regulators, including Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr., say investors are not to blame. These officials cite supply and demand as a far bigger factor. .."

May 25 2008 ~ "At nearly 86 million barrels a day, global oil production has stagnated since 2005, despite soaring demand, suggesting production already has reached the geological limit of "peak oil"..."
Independent (Geoffrey Lean) "....Recession in the West may not provide price relief, because economic demand is increasing in countries such as China, Russia and members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries - where heavy subsidies cushion consumers against rising prices.
The future could unfold in a number of ways.
An oil price collapse could result from fuel subsidies being scrapped. Cost pressures have forced Malaysia, Indonesia (which has given notice of quitting OPEC, having become a net oil importer) and Taiwan to cut them, but China is hardly strapped for cash. The net oil exporters of OPEC are under no pressure to abolish subsidies; as the oil price rises, they get richer.....After 50 years of growth the oil age has begun its retreat to the end. At peak oil - the point where production starts to decline - the resource on which all modern economies depend gets scarcer and more expensive. And the consequences are potentially devastating...."

May 23 2008 ~ Chris Skrebowski on PM programme says 'We're into a land without maps here'
Listen to yesterday's PM interview with Chris Skrebowski, editor of UK Petroleum Review
(Extracts) "Q: What do you say to the idea that some people have floated that part of the reason for the surging price in oil the fear ... that peak oil has been reached?
Skrebowski: I think that's an element in it. My own view is that this is not what we might call "pure peak oil." The peak we've reached at the moment is that we've in effect run out of [increased production of] the light, cheap and low-sulphur oil ... because the light oils make the maximum yield of the light products we want, they are the most desirable for refiners. ... The products we want - the diesel and the jet kerosene - are under great pressure and those are most easily made from the light crudes.... This, if you like, is what I would describe as the "foothills of peak oil." This is the first peak that we've achieved. ... in light, low-sulphur crude. The next peak will be when the producer countries' exports start falling. Because their growth rates are differentially much higher than those in the West. So in effect they are pre-empting more and more of their own oil for their own use, so then we will get another upward kick to the price when that starts to come in.Finally then we will get the peak oil where we simply cannot produce any more of any grade, any quality, anywhere. And that will give the final kick-up.
Q: When do you think kicks 2 and 3 will kick in?
Skrebowski: Probably around 2011. It could get pushed out to 2013 if everything goes perfectly. ... in practical planning terms almost tomorrow.
Q: Do you think we have any idea? I mean the outcry over the price of oil right now is such that people are hurting, they're feeling it. Do you think we've got any idea about what might be around the corner?
Skrebowski:The short answer, I think: no. I really think we're into a land without maps here. We don't have any real historical precedent for this. We don't quite understand how to deal with it or how to cope with it."
(The interview was on the BBC PM news programme on Thursday May 22 2008. )

May 22 2008 ~ Oil prices exceed $135 a barrel for the first time

Foxnews
".... With gas and oil prices setting new records nearly every day, analysts have begun to wonder what might stop prices from rising. .... Investment bank Goldman Sachs last week revised its oil price forecast for the second half of 2008 from $107 to $141 a barrel. But some analysts saw the new target becoming a reality much sooner......"
The Wall Street Journal reported today that the International Energy Agency is in the middle of its first attempt to comprehensively assess the condition of the world's top 400 oil fields.
For years the IEA has predicted that supplies of crude and other liquid fuels will arc gently upward to keep pace with rising demand, topping 116 million barrels a day by 2030, up from around 87 million barrels a day currently. The agency is now concerned that aging oil fields and diminished investment mean that companies could struggle to surpass 100 million barrels a day in production over the next two decades.

May 22 2008 ~ concerns over future oil supplies are fast moving into the mainstream .....
FT "....Politicians have expressed concern that speculators are forcing prices higher and Joseph Lieberman, the influential senator, said he was considering legislation to limit big institutional investors in commodities markets. Some energy executives have warned that geopolitical supply constraints will mean production will not be able to match demand as early as 2012 to 2015. This comes as demand, especially from China, is set to continue to grow, while that of the US slows. Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank, said: “The price is going to go up until governments that subsidise oil consumption in Asia and the Middle East can no longer afford it.” So far China is doing the opposite, having recently retrenched subsidies. Analysts say Chinese demand could surge further as the country faces shortages of coal and hydropower. Nervousness about Chinese energy demand was exacerbated on Tuesday when officials said 32 power plants had been forced to close because of coal shortages. PetroChina and Sinopec, the two biggest domestic oil groups, also have diverted fuel supplies to the quake-hit Sichuan region. ..."

May 19 2008 ~ "Don't expect high prices and shortages of petrol to improve in the short term"
Analysis in the Scotsman by George Kerevan "How close are we to "peak oil".......some predict as early as 2012
" the International Energy Agency predicts oil demand will double between now and 2030 ..... One source will be in small oil fields of the kind being hunted by Scottish companies such as Cairn Energy. Such fields are expensive to find and costly to tap due to the huge infrastructure required. The fact that oil has shot up to $128 (£65) a barrel - the highest ever even taking account of inflation - might make this possible.
But it is unlikely there will be a serious increase in global output for around a decade given the time it takes to build pipelines and tanker terminals. So expect high petrol prices (and shortages) to remain for the near term. Even then, this is likely to be the last surge in oil output and we will reach peak oil by 2030, if not before.
Another source of oil lies in the vast tar sands of Canada. But extracting useable oil from tar involves a vastly expensive industrial process which also results in big emissions.
It is possible to squeeze extra oil from older fields such as the North Sea. This is done by pumping water (or ) into the wells to blow out more oil. But this destroys the sponge-like membranes which contain the petroleum, meaning you get more oil out in the short term but less in the longer term.
Gordon Brown wants Opec to pump more oil to bring down prices. But experts suspect that the size of Opec reserves (80 years at current consumption) have been greatly exaggerated by local politicians. If so, peak oil could be here sooner than we think - some predict as early as 2012.

May 16 2008 ~Oil prices have hit a record high approaching $128 a barrel
on speculation that China will need to import more fuel, stretching supplies. With more energy needed to rebuild areas devastated by the earthquake this week, US light sweet crude hit $127.82 a barrel before falling to $126.29. .....As the oil price rose, pressure from congress prompted the Bush administration to decide to cease renewing a critical governmental oil stockpile on Friday, in order to boost supplies. The move by the US Energy Department follows legislation stipulating that emergency stocks should not be replenished until the price of crude oilis less than $75 per barrel. ..". BBC

May 9 2008 ~ Are we witnessing the death of ExxonMobil?
..is the question asked by Jim Jubak at MoneyCentral MSN He says that it may be a strange question to ask with oil above $120 a barrel and ExxonMobil reporting $11 billion in first-quarter profits but "the warning signs were pasted all over the company's May 1 earnings report." and continues "...Part of the problem is one that ExxonMobil shares with every other Western oil company: access to new places to drill. In the 1970s, Western oil companies controlled about 70% of all the world's proven and probable reserves. The rest belonged to the national oil companies of oil-producing countries. Today, though, the positions of the Western and national oil companies are reversed. Now the national oil companies control about 80% of the world's proven and probable reserves, and they're keeping the most promising geologies for themselves."

May 9 ~ Oil over $126, new peak for 5th straight day

Forbes LONDON, May 9 (Reuters) - Oil prices leapt to a new peak of more than $126 a barrel on Friday, hitting a record for the fifth straight session, in a market given an additional spur by tight supplies of diesel. U.S. crude for June delivery rose $1.87 to $125.56 by 1335 GMT, off a record high of $126.20 a barrel. London Brent crude rose $2.81 to $125.65 per barrel. .... Gas oil futures, the benchmark for European heating oil and diesel contract, surged to a new record high on Friday, driven by worries about tight global diesel supplies. ..... "If the price keeps going up, OPEC may consult on an increase in production before it meets in September. In my view, any increase would have to be more than 500,000 barrels per day to have an impact on the price," the source told Reuters.

May 7 2008 ~ Gordon Brown and George Bush "whistling in the wind by blaming OPEC for the latest price surge. The cartel no longer has the capacity to crank up production even if it wanted to do so"
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Telegraph writes that according to a "controversial report" by Goldman Sachs, oil prices "threaten to hit $200 a barrel in a final "super-spike" over coming months because production simply cannot keep pace with demand from China and the Middle East. Arjun Murti, the Goldman Sachs' energy strategist is quoted in the article, saying that a chronic lack of supply would lead to a "dramatic and continuous rise in oil prices", followed at some point by a sharp fall in oil demand "as consumers retrench".
"US crude prices hit a fresh high of $122.35 a barrel yesterday as rebel attacks on Shell installations in Nigeria and tensions in northern Iraq continued to strain markets already caught in a crunch..... This week's jump in prices comes despite the partial recovery of the dollar against the euro, suggesting that alleged investor appetite for oil as a sort of "anti-dollar" is no longer driving the market - if it ever was...."
Goldman Sachs said the spare capacity of the OPEC cartel is already near "minimal" levels. There is a risk that Saudi Arabia will fail to meet output targets, suffering the same sorts of setbacks that have plagued Western oil companies. Non-OPEC producers output is falling, Russia's output fell 150,000 barrels per day in April compared to a year earlier, industry leaders have been warning that Russia's oil infrastructure is deficient. Barclays Capital Bank is quoted as saying that Gordon Brown and President George Bush were "whistling in the wind by blaming OPEC for the latest price surge. The cartel no longer has the capacity to crank up production even if it wanted to do so" and that there was very little that producers could do to stop oil reaching $200, if that is where the market wants to go.

May 2 2008 ~Exxon oil production struggles for growth
FT "...ExxonMobil , long regarded by its peers and investors as the most successful interational oil company, is beginning to show signs of weakness, revealing on Thursday that it is struggling to increase oil production and to squeeze profit out of its refining business. The world's biggest energy group announced a first-quarter record profit of $10.9bn but its oil production fell almost 10 per cent in the first three months of the year and refining profits slumped..."

May 1 2008 ~ Government's plans to meet its renewable energy targets through offshore wind stymied by Shell.
Royal Dutch Shell has pulled out of the scheme. Full story in the FT "The London Array was to be the world's biggest offshore wind farm, with 341 turbines in the Thames Estuary. Shell said on Wednesday it was seeking to sell its stake, while increasing its investment in onshore wind farms in the US...."
The FT also reported last month on the defiant words of Shell's chief executive, Jeroen van der Veer, when he implied that Shell had 55 years of oil reserves. But this included investments that are far from being in traditional, easy-to-access fields and Shell, like all the others, is moving increasingly into difficult, expensive and carbon-intensive unconventional fuels, such as Canada's oil sands. Shell is also the world's largest distributor of biofuels. Although Mr van der Veer asserts that “what is unconventional today will be conventional tomorrow " extraction of oil from food crops is a disaster while extraction from oil sands is in itself highly energy intensive and can be fatal to wildlife. Yesterday, hundreds of ducks were found dead or dying in a toxic tailings pond belonging to oilsands giant Syncrude Canada Ltd. Newsnet was told that it's the worst such incident in the history of northern Alberta's oilsands.

Wednesday 23 April 2008 ~ Oil is now within striking distance of $120 a barrel. Grains prices still rising
The FT paints a grim picture today: "Chinese demand for oil is accelerating ahead of the Olympics with crude oil imports up by almost a quarter to 4.07m barrels a day in March, compared with the same month last year. ... In Nigeria, militants attacked two Shell pipelines on Monday as violence in the Niger Delta escalated... Opec ministers have continued to blame rising oil prices on speculators and the weakness in the dollar... But in an effort to reassure the market, Opec's secretary general highlighted the cartel's plans to expand capacity. ... However, Opec has no plans to meet before September, suggesting little prospect of any relief on supplies before then.
Russia : “Very mature fields, an exploding cost base, a heavy tax burden, infrastructure constraints and market unfriendly policies have led to stagnation in oil exploration and production.” ...
In agricultural markets, corn prices rose on concerns at the slow pace of US corn planting. Only 4.1 per cent of this year's crop has been sown, compared with about 22 per cent normally at this time of year.... senior commodity analyst at Ag Resource, warned that more poor weather could affect germination rates and lower yields below the USDA's current projections. .. Strength in grain prices and concerns about the impact of export restrictions on tight global supplies pushed rice prices higher ..."

April 17 2008 ~ Nigeria's oil output ‘could fall by a third'
FT "...an internal memo from the Shell Petroleum Development Company late last year that said funding problems could put the existence of the company's joint venture with the Nigerian government at risk. The fresh warning could add to supply fears that have pushed oil prices to fresh records this week and saw prices reach a record $115.45 a barrel on Thursday. Traders are already worried about Russia's oil production, considered critical to keep up with Asian demand, after warnings from industry executives that production there has peaked..."

April 16 2008 ~ "a 50-50 chance we'll reach $125 by Labour Day"
World oil prices leaped to an all-time high above $114 US per barrel in after-hours trading Tuesday, but analysts disagreed on whether the highly sought-after commodity will continue its amazing run through 2008. Two internationally respected energy market experts in Calgary for an oil conference this week agreed oil could continue to rise in the short-term, but the threatened recession in the United States makes the long-term picture bleak. Calgary analyst Peter Linder, president of DeltaOne Capital Partners Corp., said the oil rally will shrug off U.S. economic problems. "That's what everybody's looking at, but there's a world outside the U.S.," he said. "I think there's a 50-50 chance we'll reach $125 by Labour Day," Linder predicted. He said oil prices above $100 US will be the norm for the next 10 to 20 years.... West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery closed up $2.03, or 1.82 per cent, at $113.79 US on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was driven by a combination of supply issues, rising diesel demand in China and persistent dollar weakness. Crude futures later rose to a record high of $114.08 after settlement. Monday's close was also a record. The average close so far this year is over $102 US per barrel...." Calgary Herald

April 16 ~ (Reuters) - A giant Brazilian oil reserve estimate that came out this week is overblown, but a larger area encompassing the find could indeed contain 33 billion barrels
Credit Suisse energy analysts said on Wednesday. The analysts stressed they remain bullish on the country's oil prospects in the so-called subsalt cluster and consider feasible the reserve estimate in a structure known as Sugar Loaf, including blocks that are still not under concession...."We are bullish on the Brazilian pre-salt play, but we're also trying to keep this story grounded in reality," analyst Mark Flannery told a conference call after last week's visit by a team from Credit Suisse Global Energy to Brazil..." Reuters

April 15 2008 ~ “the period of intense oil production [growth] is over”.
Even today's story of a possible big oil discovery in Brazil may not delay the ending of cheap oil by very much. The Carioca field ( BM-S-9) is located beneath a layer of salt in water more than 2,000 meters deep. No official information is available yet to confirm the guess that there might be 33 billion barrels of oil there - and the cost of extracting it will be very much higher than in conventional oil wells. Extracting and turning the oil into usable form will also be extremely energy-intensive. Only recently has the physical technology even existed to drill in water that deep. It will be a difficult and expensive enterprise. However, it may perhaps alter the policies of the country most desperate to secure supplies.
Russia, until recently considered the most promising oil region outside the Middle East is now admitting stagnation and that the period of intense oil production is over. The FT today reports that the vice-president of Lukoil has compared Russia with the North Sea and Mexico, where oil production is declining dramatically - and even the Russian government has admitted that production growth has stagnated.
The thirst of governments for cheap energy and the mad dash for bio-fuel is, of course, what ultimately lies behind the food riots now spreading across the planet. There are now only 8 to 12 weeks of cereal stocks left in the world.

April 11 2008 ~ " because extraction methods have become more efficient - "decline rates" are also higher in major fields.
IMF World Economic Outlook (pdf - p55 and 56) "... The International Energy Agency suggests that almost two-thirds of the additional gross capacity needed over the next eight years will be required just to replace declines in output from existing fields. ..."
Second, oil will increasingly come from unconventional sources, because output has declined from peak levels at conventional fields in many countries, and the size of oil fields is getting smaller on average. ...."
(As for these "unconventional sources", Matthew Simmons says, "The energy that is consumed to get oil out of the oil sands of Canada - in massive amounts of potable water and natural gas - is so vast you are really turning gold into lead. What you get out is a very low quality amount of oil that has to be upgraded and diluted with high quality oil to get synthetic crude. What I can't figure out is why the executives of these oil companies don't understand that." source)

April 10 2008 ~ Oil hits record high after US inventories
The Finincial Times last night: "Oil prices jumped to above $112 a barrel on Wednesday, a fresh record high that threatens to stoke inflation further as the Federal Reserve faces pressure to cut interest rates again to counter the risk of recession. The increase came after the US Department of Energy said there was an unexpected drop in oil inventories last week. Strong demand in China and the rest of Asia, after a colder than average winter, also helped to boost prices, traders said. .... US petrol reserves have shrunk for four successive weeks and this is leading to concerns about supplies..... The International Monetary Fund warned on Wednesday that crude oil prices would remain at about $95 on average this year and the next, in spite of the slowdown in the world economy. Coal prices are also rising, with utilities in Asia this week accepting a 100 per cent rise in the annual price they pay for coal supplies. Steelmakers have agreed to pay up to 240 per cent more for coking coal."

March 30 2008 ~ "Oil remains at the heart of the game and, if anything, it is even more important than before."
Observer "With their complex logistics and heavy reliance on air power, high-tech armies are extremely energy-intensive. According to a Pentagon report, the amount of petroleum needed for each soldier each day increased four times between the Second World War and the Gulf War and quadrupled again when the US invaded Iraq. Recent estimates suggest the amount used per soldier has jumped again in the five years since the invasion. Whereas Western countries dominated the last round of the Great Game, this time they rely on increasingly self-assertive producer countries. Mr Putin's well-honed contempt for world opinion might grate on European ears, but Europe is heavily dependent on his energy. Hugo Chávez might be an object of hate for George W Bush, but Venezuela still supplies around 10 per cent of America's imported oil. President Ahmadinejad is seen by some as the devil incarnate, but with oil at more than a $100 a barrel, any Western attempt to topple him would be horrendously risky. ..."

March 27 2008 ~Oil prices went above $108 a barrel after one of Iraq's main export pipelines was blown up.
The BBC reports that a company official said damage would cut Basra's exports by a third, adding to supply fears and increasing concern about stability in the region. ... The price of New York light sweet crude oil closed at $107.58 dollars per barrel having hit $108.22 dollars.
Another key measure of the oil price, London Brent crude, finsihed $1.01 higher at $105, having peaked at $105.60 during the session.
March 27 2008 ~ "Energy shortages are now so frequent across the world there is a new web site, www.energyshortage.org, devoted to keeping track of them all."
(FCNP) There are currently 96 different places in the world that have reported some form of energy shortages in recent months. These range from large areas of China, through the sub continent to small South Pacific islands such as Saipan and the Marianas that have not been heard from much since World War II.
Nearly every government in the world has announced plans for more electricity production. Most would like nuclear power plants that would, in theory, free them from the vagaries of hydro power and the steadily increasing prices of fossil fuels. Unfortunately, most of these plans have no foundation in reality, for unless the country is a wealthy one, the rapidly increasing prices of major projects such as oil refineries and power plants, particularly of the nuclear variety, are going to become prohibitively costly very soon. As for nuclear power stations, it is almost certain those few countries that have the capability to design and build them are going to be preoccupied for decades with building them for their domestic market or the ultra-rich oil exporters...."

March18 2008 ~ "Oil prices rose to consecutive record high levels in recent weeks, driven by the US currency's persistent slump against the euro..."
"Oil prices advanced on Tuesday, in line with rebounding world equity markets, but remained some way off the record high of nearly 112 dollars that was hit the previous day....Brent North Sea crude for May was up 1.54 dollars to 103.29 dollars. It struck an all-time peak of 107.97 on Monday....analysts at energy consultancy John Hall Associates.
"The Federal Reserve is expected to announce their rate decision later today, with a 0.75-1.0 percent cut widely anticipated. This would weaken the dollar and could potentially push oil prices back up, though the US economy remains weak."
The weak US currency makes oil and other commodities an attractive investment option because they are priced in dollar and become more affordable for purchasers holding stronger currencies. Investors also view them as a hedge against inflation." AFP

March15 2008 ~ Oil hits record $US111, US dollar dives
/www.news.com.au ".... ”Energy markets continue to enjoy their status as an alternative 'safe haven' for those fleeing the ravaged bond and stock markets,'' said MF Global analyst Ed Meir. ”With the sinking US dollar providing support, the path of least resistance seems to be higher still.'' Oil prices have rocketed by 90 per cent over the past year as the market was driven by tight supplies, geopolitical concerns in key producer nations and fierce demand for crude from China and India."

March15 2008 ~ Oil and gold hit new highs.
Events are moving faster and faster. Equity markets and the dollar are dropping. Oil, gas, diesel and commodities are surging as the investment of last resort. The Independent comments: ".....Neil MacKinnon, chief economist at the ECU hedge fund, said: "We are facing a potential black hole for all financial markets. This is being labelled as perhaps the worst financial and banking crisis since the Great Depression. While that sounds fairly apocalyptic, I think it is a realistic assessment of what is happening at the moment." ..... Oil and gold hit new highs. Investors also fled to the comparative safety of US Treasury bonds, pushing shorter-term yields to their lowest since 2003. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Tuesday...."

March 12 2008 ~ "The price of oil soared to a new record level above $110 (£54) a barrel yesterday
The dollar resumed its slide against other major currencies in New York trading yesterday, amid concerns over the stability of the US banking system, fears that the credit crisis has tipped the economy into recession..." Independent

March 9 2008 ~ Markets rattled by signs of renewed credit crisis
International Herald Tribune "...pressure mounts on central banks facing what looks like the third wave of a global credit crisis....soaring inflation is tying the hands of central bankers who want to bolster economies by cutting interest rates. Oil hit a record price near $106 a barrel, while gold, a traditional inflation hedge, rose toward $1,000 an ounce. Prices of products like cooper, rice, soybeans and palm oil roared to all-time peaks...."

March 6 2008 ~ "Crude oil traded near a record $US104.95 a barrel in New York
after the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to leave output unchanged at a meeting in Vienna and Colombian rebels bombed an oil pipeline in that country on Wednesday, escalating a cross-border dispute between Colombia and Ecuador. Also, the US Energy Department reported that US crude oil inventories had fallen for the first time in eight weeks." business.theage.com.au

March 4 2008 ~ Gas supplies to Europe could be hit
FT "The energy stand-off between Gazprom and Ukraine escalated on Tuesday as officials in Kiev warned that gas supplies to Europe could be hit if the Russian side went ahead with threats to cut shipments to Ukraine by more than half. Ukraine's state oil and gas company, Naftogaz Ukrainy, accused Gazprom of violating basic "principles" in relations between both countries in threatening to cut shipments further. The company, which manages a vast pipeline system that supplies Europe with a majority of its Russian gas supplies, said in a statement it could "guarantee undisturbed transit to European consumers only as long as Ukraine's energy security is not threatened." ..."

March 3 2008 ~ Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have blamed factors beyond its control, such as speculation and the weak dollar, for oil's record run.
Guardian "I think that the price could go up," Ghanem said. "Everything is volatile, we are in the age of volatility and speculation." "The physical market is different from the paper market. We are living in kind of virtual oil markets."
Ghanem, who is in Vienna to attend an OPEC meeting on Wednesday, reiterated that he did not expect the group to change its oil output. "At this level of the price, I would think that things will be postponed," he said. "It's not a good time for action. It is a time for watching."
Libya's state-owned National Oil Corporation has been signing a spate of deals with foreign energy firms to help develop its oil and gas reserves. The OPEC oil exporter wants to become a major gas producer, and aims to increase production to 3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) by 2010, up from 2.7 bcfd now..."

Feb 26 2008 ~ Oil prices could top $300 per barrel within the next five years: Matthew Simmons
www.arabianbusiness.com "....Matthew Simmons, chairman and founder of specialised energy investment banking firm, Simmons & Company International, said the current highs of $100 per barrel are "cheap". ... he is more concerned about energy shortages than the rising price of oil. ... He noted that in the UK's capital, London, where typically the price per gallon can reach as much as $9, it hasn't deterred motorists from continuing to use their cars. ... Simmons said that the peak oil issue is poorly understood and the world's data on production, demand and inventories is inaccurate.
Last week oil reached a new record of $102, closing in on its inflation-adjusted peak, as a slumping dollar on lacklustre US economic data triggered a surge across commodities markets. Opec's president said members would agree not to raise production in part because of fears of a demand slowdown."

March 3 2008 ~ Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have blamed factors beyond its control, such as speculation and the weak dollar, for oil's record run.
Guardian "I think that the price could go up," Ghanem said. "Everything is volatile, we are in the age of volatility and speculation." "The physical market is different from the paper market. We are living in kind of virtual oil markets."
Ghanem, who is in Vienna to attend an OPEC meeting on Wednesday, reiterated that he did not expect the group to change its oil output. "At this level of the price, I would think that things will be postponed," he said. "It's not a good time for action. It is a time for watching."
Libya's state-owned National Oil Corporation has been signing a spate of deals with foreign energy firms to help develop its oil and gas reserves. The OPEC oil exporter wants to become a major gas producer, and aims to increase production to 3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) by 2010, up from 2.7 bcfd now..."

Feb 26 2008 ~ Oil prices could top $300 per barrel within the next five years: Matthew Simmons
www.arabianbusiness.com "....Matthew Simmons, chairman and founder of specialised energy investment banking firm, Simmons & Company International, said the current highs of $100 per barrel are "cheap". ... he is more concerned about energy shortages than the rising price of oil. ... He noted that in the UK's capital, London, where typically the price per gallon can reach as much as $9, it hasn't deterred motorists from continuing to use their cars. ... Simmons said that the peak oil issue is poorly understood and the world's data on production, demand and inventories is inaccurate.
Last week oil reached a new record of $102, closing in on its inflation-adjusted peak, as a slumping dollar on lacklustre US economic data triggered a surge across commodities markets. Opec's president said members would agree not to raise production in part because of fears of a demand slowdown."

Feb 26 2008 ~"....last week, Jeroen van der Veer, the chief executive of oil major Royal Dutch Shell, released a study that predicted the days of easy-to-reach oil are at an end.
Gulf News ... prediction that Shell sees "about 50 per cent more demand for energy in the world in the coming 25 years, and a doubling of energy [demand] by 2050" and those sources of energy are going to be increasingly expensive to access.
Jim Buckee, retired president and chief executive of major independent Talisman Energy, echoes van der Veer. "We're there [at peak oil] or close to it," he told Canada's Globe & Mail. "Mexico, the North Sea and possibly Ghawar [in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest conventional oil field] are all in decline. The truth is the world is producing 30 billion-plus barrels of oil a year and is finding less than 10 billion. This is the worry."

February 24 2008 ~ the most crucial energy issues that must be addressed by the new US administration in its first 30 days in office
Matt Simmons www.chron.com "......There are no new sources of energy supply that can quickly be brought into use to relieve this pending energy squeeze, but every supply source helps, and no new supply source is too risky or too small. Everything that can safely work and last for more than a two- to four-year time frame needs to be inventoried and developed as soon as possible. These are the most crucial energy issues that must be addressed by the new administration in its first 30 days in office. Once these efforts are under way, far more comprehensive steps to begin creating a less energy-intensive economy, both here and abroad, can be initiated. For the past eight administrations and 25 Congresses, America based its entire energy policy on a concept that oil would always be cheap and ever abundant. In such a world, all other energy sources would stay even less expensive than oil. As a result, we wasted three decades to begin addressing these serious issues and spent far too much time and money trying to clean up what was perceived as energy that was too dirty."

Feb 22 2008 ~ "... behaviour must change because nothing can compensate for the rising cost of petroleum." French P.M
energyresources/message "...French Prime Minister, Francçois Fillon said that the French should not be told stories. The price of oil will remain very high because oil is a depleting resource. He said that this was moreover at the heart of the ‘Grenelle de l'environnement,' a summit on the environment between employers and unions in October 2007; that behaviour must change because nothing can compensate for the rising cost of petroleum. He said that the government was going to freeze public spending for the next five years.....We have yet to hear such frankness from our governments ..."

20th February 2008 ~ world leaders are steering the world toward an energy disaster characterized by shortages, high energy prices, inflation, civil unrest and famine.
www.prweb.comThe price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil closed above $100 for the first time on February 19, 2008. "Rising oil prices have been giving a clear signal of pending shortages for over five years now," according to TheOilDrum.com. By ignoring this signal, world leaders are steering the world toward an energy disaster characterized by shortages, high energy prices, inflation, civil unrest and famine. The $100 a barrel closing price is a sign that times will never be the same again. "The world is entering a new era. In this new era, the supply of energy will dominate the political landscape in a way that is not being recognized by any of the presidential candidates," according to TheOilDrum.com...."

February 18 2008 ~ One of the primary purposes of government is to anticipate future threats and take appropriate risk management measures, so we cannot turn from this challenge …
www.aph.gov.au The Hon Dr Mike Kelly AM, MP, Member for Eden-Monaro (New South Wales) First Speech To Austalian Parliament - 13/2/2008
"I believe the future of this country will largely be shaped by our response to the challenges posed by two liquids: water and oil. We cannot grow and will find it difficult to sustain our current lifestyle if we do not come up with a major national effort on our water resource management. We must give thought to whether we are selecting the appropriate land usage in tune with our various regions. We should reach out more vigorously to countries like Israel to collaborate on the development of water management and agricultural technology.
With regard to oil, I view the threat posed by the future dependency of this country on overseas and dwindling supplies as a critical strategic vulnerability.
I believe we must follow the lead of the Swedes in taking a proactive approach towards eliminating this substance from our economy. The future oil shocks that we are facing will have the greatest impact on communities like Eden-Monaro and, for their sake, I intend to keep this issue in the forefront of our thinking. One of the primary purposes of government is to anticipate future threats and take appropriate risk management measures, so we cannot turn from this challenge."

February 15 2008 ~ natural gas based fertilizer prices will continue to rise along with the commodity, as more and more competition for gas ensues, further boosting the price of food, and making the heat or eat problem even more acute.…
Energy Bulletin "........It is hard not to come to the conclusion, then that we in Northern regions face a heating crisis, and probably within a few years. And since we live in a society that practices cost rationing even for the most basic needs, that means that poor people in cold places will be increasingly priced out of heating energy. Or they will be priced out of food, as they futily stop eating in order to try and keep warm.
Meanwhile, natural gas based fertilizer prices will continue to rise along with the commodity, as more and more competition for gas ensues, further boosting the price of food, and making the heat or eat problem even more acute.
And what choices do we have as an alternative? Wood heating could be a decent option in many places, although not in urban centers where particulate emissions costs would be greater than the benefits..."

February 8 2008 ~ Canada's production of natural gas and conventional oil is declining…
Richard Heinberg on energybulletin.net on the clause in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) states that Canada must continue to supply the same proportion of its oil and gas resources to the US in future years as it does now. "Canada uses lots of oil and gas domestically: 70 percent of Canadians heat their homes with gas, and Canadians drive cars more and further than just about anyone else. The problem is likely to come first with natural gas; as production declines, there will come a point when there isn't enough to fill domestic needs and continue to export (roughly 60 percent of Canada's gas now goes to the US).
That point is not decades in the future, it is fairly imminent.
Then there is the problem of Climate Change. Canada is committed by treaty to reducing domestic emissions of carbon dioxide. But most of Canada's emissions come not from consuming fossil fuels, but producing them - increasingly, from producing synthetic diesel fuel from the tar sands of Alberta. Even if Canadians decide to drive less and turn down their thermostats, those efforts will do little or nothing to change energy production rates (hence emissions rates), because any extra amounts of fuel produced but not used domestically will simply be exported south; in fact, they virtually must be by the terms of NAFTA.
So Canada's energy security and global climate security are both held hostage by a provision within a trade agreement...."

February 8 2008 ~ Australia's first transition town…
Energy Bulletin "....Based at a community education centre on the Sunshine Coast in Queensland, SEAC has produced the first Australian Energy Descent Action Plan (EDAP) to be embraced by both the community and local government! Having acknowledged the looming effects of peak oil, SEAC has created a community that is leading the way in preparing for our future without the abundant high energy resource our economy relies on. SEAC's website provides a wealth of information and Wonderful World Media looks forward to bringing you more on the work being done by this amazing group of people. (28 January 2008)..."

February 8 2008 ~ Making biofuels leads to "excessive land clearing" and releases vast amounts of carbon dioxide
Independent "Growing crops to make biofuels results in vast amounts of carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere and does nothing to stop climate change or global warming, according to the first thorough scientific audit of a biofuel's carbon budget. ....Professor Stephen Polasky of the University of Minnesota, an author of one of the studies published in Science, said that the incentives currently employed to encourage farmers to grow crops for biofuels do not take into account the carbon budget of the crop." "We don't have the proper incentives in place because landowners are rewarded for producing palm oil and other products but not rewarded for carbon management. This creates incentives for excessive land clearing and can result in large increases in carbon emissions," Professor Polasky said.

February 7 2008 ~ "The key is going to be agriculture"
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Telegraph today is one of the first mainstream journalists to point out the grim corollary between oil depletion and famine. He quotes Jeff Currie of US investment bank Goldman Sachs:
"We have never seen this before when commodity prices were already at record highs. Over the next 18 to 36 months we are probably going into crisis mode across the commodity complex. The key is going to be agriculture. China is terrified of the current situation. It has real physical shortages," he said, referencing China still having memories of starvation in the 1960s seared in its collective mind...."
The graph in the article showing the projected increase of land use for biofuels gives a stark picture of how biofuels made from grain, oil seed and sugar are drawing away food supplies at a time when the population of the world is still expanding by 70 million a year. Goldman Sachs forecasts that oil will be priced at $105 a barrel by the end of 2008.
Meanwhile, DEFRA is increasingly deprived of funding and the UK government is shrugging off its responsibility towards home grown food, farming and food safety. Relying on cheap imports that may become ever scarcer seems unwise.

February 6 2008 ~ recent slump has changed the equation for the cartel
Guardian " Worries about the outlook for global energy demand growth in the fallout of a U.S. housing crisis and credit crunch have pulled oil back from a record high above $100 a barrel hit in early January. Oil briefly struck the triple-digit region amid declining inventory levels and robust demand growth from developing economies like China and India -- leading major oil consumer nations to demand more crude from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
But the recent slump has changed the equation for the cartel, leading some member nations -- notably Iran and Venezuela -- to argue for reduced output when they next meet in March. OPEC decided last week to maintain current output limits, despite calls from consumer nations for more oil to bring energy prices down and take pressure off the economy. Tuesday's oil price declines were tempered by disruptions to oil imports in Texas due to dense sea fog and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after attacks by Turkey on northern Iraq...."

February 5 2008 ~every indication that worldwide petroleum production will begin an inexorable, inevitable decline beginning around 2010
Richard Heinberg's "museletter" "...during the past three years, global production of crude oil has remained static, despite demand growth - especially from Asian economies. And there is every indication that worldwide petroleum production will begin an inexorable, inevitable decline beginning around 2010. .... in the three years since May 2005, the rate of extraction of conventional crude oil has stalled, while prices have shifted to the $60 to $100 range. Many analysts believe that by 2015 oil production will be declining at an annual rate of over two percent per year and prices may be in the multiple hundreds of dollars per barrel. While more exploration prospects for conventional oil exist, they are mostly in geographically remote or politically sensitive areas; meanwhile, shortages of drilling rigs and trained personnel are adding significantly to delays in bringing new projects on line. Enormous quantities of non-conventional fossil fuels exist that are capable of being turned into synthetic liquid fuels (the bitumen deposits of Alberta, the heavy oil of the Orinoco basin in Venezuela, and the marlstone or "shale oil" of Wyoming and Colorado); however, the rate at which these substances can be extracted and processed is constrained by physical and economic factors - such as the need for enormous quantities of fresh water and natural gas for processing.
World production of natural gas will likely peak somewhat later than that of oil; however, regional natural gas supply constraints are already appearing, primarily in North America (the most intensive consumer of the resource), as well as Russia and Europe. Because only a small proportion is traded globally in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG), this means it may not be possible to avert regional shortages by resorting to seaborne imports...."

January 31st 2008 ~ "The rest of us are going to have to find alternative means of transportation..."
www.fcnp.com"...Within the next ten years the size, shape, efficiency, fuel and numbers of private automobiles is going to undergo a radical change. The nine million barrels of gasoline we currently use in the U.S. each day simply will not be available in the quantities desired at any price. If a transition to a more abundant fuel source than gasoline and diesel does not take place on a widespread basis before the shortages begin, there will be troubles. It is virtually certain that at some point the government will have to impose rationing that will keep functions vital to our society such as food, water, utilities and public safety functioning. The rest of us are going to have to find alternative means of transportation...U.S. natural gas production has been flat for years and the only way we can keep it that way is by drilling more and more gas wells each year. Our friends in Canada just announced that their natural gas production, read exports to the U.S., is about to start declining...."

January 25th 2008 ~ "World demand for oil and gas will outstrip supply within seven years, according to Royal Dutch Shell."
Times The oil multinational is predicting that conventional supplies will not keep pace with soaring population growth and the rapid pace of economic development. Jeroen van der Veer, Shell's chief executive, said in an e-mail to the company's staff this week that output of conventional oil and gas was close to peaking. He wrote: “Shell estimates that after 2015 supplies of easy-to-access oil and gas will no longer keep up with demand.”

January 25th 2008 ~ "Get thee to the productive side of the economy. Grow something, or learn to make or repair something useful."
Energy Bulletin (Richard Heinberg) "It's becoming increasingly clear that 2008 will be a catastrophic year for the US economy, and therefore probably for that of the world as a whole. The reasons boil down to two: continuing and snowballing fallout from the subprime mortgage fiasco (exacerbated by an orgy of debt-leveraging), and record-high, continuously advancing oil prices.......there is at least one upside to all these downers: the collapse of the current debt-and-growth based economy may finally force a redesign of the money system and the "science" of economics. But this will take a while, and it will help if there are good ideas out there being widely discussed and promoted, such as the notions of a steady-state economy or an energy-backed currency. Meanwhile, if you're interested in finding shelter during the storm, get thee to the productive side of the economy. Grow something, or learn to make or repair something useful."

January 21st 2008 ~ "Peak Oil is about RATE. And RATE is dependent on the SIZE, AGE and QUALITY of the RESERVES. "
Energy Bulletin "...if the demand is 110 million barrels per day, and the world can only produce 100 million barrels per day, then the price will go up until the demand abates. And if worldwide economic growth is proportional to the rate of growth in energy consumption (as it has been since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution), then if we can't grow energy consumption, we've got a problem with growing the economy!
To make matters worse, after the maximum oil production rate (Peak Oil) is reached, then the rate begins to decline - at least within a few years! (Hirsch's recent work with respect to "plateaus" is not encouraging.) So, post-Peak Oil, the economy not only can't continue to grow, but it must contract - IF economic growth is proportional to growth in energy usage (as it has been in the past)...."

January 17th 2008 ~ "the U.S. economic outlook has worsened"
Guardian "....Oil fell a dollar on Thursday to below $90 a barrel on fears the U.S. economy will slip into a recession and hurt demand from the world's largest energy consumer. The slump extends oil's losses to about 10 percent since it hit the record Jan. 3 over $100 a barrel. U.S. light crude for February delivery CLc1> fell $1.00 to $89.84 a barrel by 1700 GMT. London Brent crude LCOc1> also dropped $1.00 to $88.50 a barrel. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said more interest rate cuts may be necessary and the U.S. economic outlook has worsened. Separately, a survey showed factory activity in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region contracted dramatically in January, reinforcing fears of a recession...."

January 15th 2008 ~ World leaders queasy over record oil prices
Reuters " World leaders are becoming increasingly uncomfortable with oil near $100, saying prices at these heights posed a threat to their already vulnerable economies. Many analysts say oil prices are likely to stay near current levels, which when adjusted for inflation sparked a deep recession in the 1970s. In Riyadh, U.S. President George W. Bush complained on Tuesday about "very high" oil prices and promised to raise his concerns with his Saudi host King Abdullah. French President Nicolas Sarkozy on Monday said the real price of oil should be around $70 a barrel, blaming speculators for the extra $30. Even Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who is normally a price hawk, said he hoped the price of crude oil wouldn't go beyond $100 a barrel but admitted it probably would. Leaders are worried that high oil prices will push the world economy, already shaken by a credit crisis and a battered dollar, into a recession. But economists and market experts say the world has changed dramatically in the last 30 years. "High oil prices will not tip the world into a recession. The economy is more resilient than it was in the 1970s," said Kevin Norrish, analyst at Barclays Capital. "The industry's dependence on oil is much less now. ...."

January 12th 2008 ~ High oil prices? You ain't seen nothing yet
Petroleum News today: " .....a recession with a possible reduction in oil price will have no good attributes,” he said. “We would be better off facing up to the inevitability of more expensive oil and doing something about it.” .... Simmons has calculated that oil will have to climb above $180 per barrel before price pressures force voluntary conservation. Evidence from Britain tends to prove Simmons right.
“A U.S. gallon of diesel costs $7 in the United Kingdom (most of it due to taxes),” Herrera said. “That is equivalent to about $180 per barrel for oil. There is clear evidence that UK truckers are beginning to revolt at these costs by blocking refineries and other protests. .......
A bigger worry for us than oil prices should be oil supply, according to Simmons. “Sadly, the United States of America, the world's most advanced economy, has no fuel gauge of any sort to indicate when our useable spare supply of crude oil and (refined) products is nearing empty. And the stock data of the USA is the best published oil data of any country,” Simmons said. “None of this would be alarming if ‘peak oil' was decades away. But, this is a fool's dream.”

January 9th 2008 ~ the real problems are indeed "below ground"."

Guardian ~ ".....Among policymakers, particularly those running for election, fear of a recession trumps fear of an oil peak, so there is even less incentive to talk about the potential of a peak in oil output. But if recession fails to "cure" high oil prices - and if the world finds itself in the double fix of an economic slowdown and expensive oil - even optimistic leaders may have to confront the possibility that speculators and a weak dollar are not alone in driving oil prices and that the real problems are indeed "below ground"."

January 7th 2008 ~ look beyond the conflicting forecasts and to focus on the consequences of underestimating the severe consequences of the peak oil problem

Energy Bulletin ~ The peak oil debate created two extreme camps:
On the one hand there are those pessimists (mostly geologists) who argue peak oil is already upon us or shortly (generally before 2015) will be. Once the peak is reached, this camp foresees skyrocketing prices leading to economic ruin, social and environmental collapse, massive dislocation and even a dying civilization. Most important advocate of this group is the International Association of the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) promoting the message of imminent depletion, often in crisis tones.
On the other hand there are those optimists (mostly economists and political scientist) who believe that unconventional sources of oil, technological advancement, market forces and increased investment will enable us to produce more oil or invest substitutes and hence meet increasing demand. They expect a smooth shift to new and better energy resources driven by market forces. Most prominent advocates of this group are US Energy Information Agency, International Energy Agency and Cambridge Energy Research Associates. They all argue that no peak is visible before 2030 and “above-ground issues” 12 are more important than below ground issues.
In the middle way stands another camp, called mitigationist, warning of the risks and potential consequences of approaching Peak Oil. They suggest to look beyond the conflicting forecasts and to focus on the consequences of underestimating the severe consequences of the peak oil problem, and urge mitigation efforts begin immediately...."

January 3 2008 ~ shortages for diesel and heating oil now seem likely to develop before they do for gasoline

Falls Church News ~ Shortages for diesel and heating oil now seem likely to develop before they do for gasoline.It is going to be a lot harder to conserve on diesel fuel, which for the most part does vital work, than it would be to conserve gasoline for our personal transportation. ....To gain an insight into what will happen in 2008, we need to remember that refined diesel can only come from places that have refineries and a surplus to sell. We are talking about Europe, the Caribbean and some Asian countries, Singapore, Taiwan and Korea. It is interesting to note that in the U.S. diesel is 28 percent of the total daily consumption of gasoline and diesel, while in Europe the number is 63 percent. In other words Europe is much more into diesel than the U.S. and therefore unlikely to have much for sale. International Energy Agency forecasts for 2008 show a substantial drop coming in distillate exports.
As diesel shortages are a real drag on China's economy, continuing or even increasing imports of this vital commodity are likely to continue. The bottom line seems to be that shortages for diesel and heating oil now seem likely to develop before they do for gasoline. Heating oil prices which have increased by nearly a dollar a gallon since last winter are already causing people to turn down the thermostats significantly, however if the unusually warm weather that is currently forecast for the next two months does not turn up, there is clearly trouble ahead."

January 3 2008 ~

(Reuters) - ".... The weak dollar, cold weather in the United States and unrest in Nigeria helped lift oil, which in turn boosted gold. ... U.S. light crude for February delivery fell 25 cents to $99.37 a barrel by 0426 GMT. Crude touched a record of $100 in the previous session, surpassing November's $99.29 peak. .... "Oil is particularly news-sensitive at the moment as we are in the peak heating oil demand period and prices are being driven by cold weather in the United States and tensions in oil producer Nigeria and to a lesser extent, Pakistan." Suspected militants mounted attacks in Nigeria's oil city, Port Harcourt, on Tuesday, killing 18. Regular attacks by militant groups since February 2006 have already cut oil exports by the world's eighth-largest crude exporter by about 20 percent. Investors will now be watching if crude can establish itself firmly above $100 a barrel. "

December 15 2007 ~

Guardian ~ "Expensive oil and food boosted euro zone inflation in November even higher than initially estimated to its steepest level in six and a half years, data showed, raising concern at the European Commission.
Consumer prices in the 13 countries using the euro rose 0.5 percent month-on-month and 3.1 percent year-on-year, the European Union statistics office said on Friday. The annual figure compared with 2.6 percent in October and the initial 3.0 percent estimate, which shaped market expectations. It was the highest rate since May 2001, when inflation also reached 3.1 percent -- its strongest level since measurements for what is now the euro zone started in January 1997. "These inflation numbers are bad news all round and come against a background of elevated and rising inflation expectations," said Klaus Baader, economist at Merrill Lynch. "The credibility of the anti-inflationary regime in Europe is not really what it used to be." The European Commission expressed concern ....."

December 10 2007 ~

Independent ~ "The oil rush is also scarring a wilderness landscape: millions of tonnes of plant life and top soil is scooped away in vast open-pit mines and millions of litres of water are diverted from rivers - up to five barrels of water are needed to produce a single barrel of crude and the process requires huge amounts of natural gas. The industry, which now includes all the major oil multinationals, including the Anglo-Dutch Shell and American combine Exxon-Mobil, boasts that it takes two tonnes of the raw sands to produce a single barrel of oil....as oil prices hover around the $100-per-barrel mark, Lord Browne's successor, Tony Hayward, announced that BP has entered a joint venture with Husky Energy, owned by the Hong Kong based billionaire Li Ka-Shing, to develop a tar sands facility..."

December 5 2007 ~

www.energybulletin.net ".......The magnitude of the coming decline in oil availability is truly alarming..... A collapse of the dollar seems imminent because of the converging effects of the unsustainable boom financed by ballooning consumer debt and the unsustainable flooding of the world economy with US Dollars to import two thirds of their oil as well as a flood of consumer goods. The United States is bankrupt but nobody wants to admit it. The main reasons that in the US Dollar retains any value at all are that a large number of countries hold dollars as foreign reserve, almost everybody buys their oil in dollars and manufacturing countries, particularly China, do not want to see a collapse of their largest market.
The consequences and speed of the downfall of the American Empire are highly unpredictable, but it is certain to be a disaster for the whole world, which ever way it unfolds. I worry that the US high command may do something really stupid, like launching military action to seize oil by force by attacking Iran or Venezuela for example. My only hope is that their current war for oil is going very badly and I don't think the American people will support any new resource wars. However, this may change if the economy collapses and there is massive unemployment and hardship similar to that of the Weimar Republic of the 1920s...." (Read in full)

December 3 2007 ~

Rutland Herald ~ The U.S. Government Accountability Office concluded in a report earlier this year, "… there is no coordinated federal strategy for reducing uncertainty about the … timing (of peak oil) or mitigating its consequences." In Vermont, things are no better. A doctoral student, after interviewing top officials in Vermont state government, recently concluded that the state has no reliable response to peak oil. At the local level, we're seeing only the beginnings of a response. Many cities and towns have energy teams, knit together in the Vermont Energy and Climate Action Network. The Brattleboro Select Board has appointed a Peak Oil Task Force, which is drafting a report on the town's vulnerability to peak oil. On Tuesday, the Middlebury Select Board began considering its own task force...."

November 2007 ~

Independent ~" .....a growing appreciation of the finite limits to global oil production. Not only is production running pretty much at full bore, but there are also doubts about the ability to increase production in the medium-term. The second is the surge in demand from the emerging economies, principally China. And the third is the growing evidence of an economic slowdown in the US and the relationship between the higher oil price and that slowdown. A word about each....
...The worldwide rise in food prices is, in part, the result of using maize for fuel rather than for food. It also changes the sense of power: Russia and the Middle East have become more important; Western Europe and the US less so.....
.... If China is to go on using all the additional oil that is available, or more, the rest of the world will have to get by with less. This makes the present surge in the oil price different from all previous oil shocks: it is caused by rising demand rather than restricted supply...
....Eventually, higher energy and raw material costs must feed through into US inflation. The weak dollar will exacerbate this trend. So can the US Federal Reserve credibly cut interest rates further in the face of this inflationary pressure? Quite a few sceptics have questioned the wisdom of its most recent cut, and neither the Bank of England nor the European Central Bank has sought to follow - the ECB may even increase rates later this year. While the world has coped with oil prices approaching $100 a barrel surprising well so far, the US at least will find it harder to do so.
The surge in the oil price is just one element of pressure on the world economy. Countries that are growing strongly can cope. Countries that are already under pressure, such as the US, are finding it harder to do so. And countries in the middle, such as the UK? Well, higher energy prices will be one more headwind against the economy, resulting in slower growth next year. Money spent at the petrol pump is money not available to spend on something else. "

November 2007 ~

.energybulletin.net".... oil prices could move irreversibly over the $100 a barrel threshold in the not too distant future, as the global economy faces a serious energy shortage.
This gloomy assessment comes from the International Energy Agency, the Paris-based organization representing the 26 rich, gas-guzzling member nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The agency is not known for alarmist warnings, and its World Energy Outlook is typically viewed by policy wonks as a solid indicator of global energy supplies. In a marked change from its traditionally bland, measured tones, the IEA's 2007 report says governments need to make urgent, bold decisions on energy policy, or risk massive environmental and energy-supply crises within two decades - crises and shortages that could spark serious global conflicts.
"I am sorry to say this, but we are headed toward really bad days," IEA chief economist Fatih Birol told TIME this week. "Lots of targets have been set but very little has been done. There is a lot of talk and no action." ....."

November 7 2007 ~

Stuff co.nz World oil prices are racing toward record levels of US$100 a barrel, and gold is rushing to its highest in almost 30 years, as the United States dollar slumps against other currencies.

November 2 2007 ~

BBC analysts said that crude oil would probably break through $100 a barrel this year....There are also concerns about geopolitical issues such as a clash between the US and Iran, and an escalation of hostilities between Turkey and rebel Kurdish fighters based in the northern areas of Iraq....The problem facing oil markets and analysts is that all of the factors are combining to create a high level of uncertainty in the market and this, in turn, is driving prices higher..."

October 29 2007 ~

New Scientist ~ "It is downhill all the way for oil, according to a study by the Energy Watch Group (EWG) in Berlin, Germany. It reported this week that world oil production peaked in 2006 - far earlier than expected. EWG analysed oil production figures and predicted it would fall by 7 per cent a year, dropping to half of current levels by 2030. The announcement comes as oil prices reached record highs last week, at more than $90 a barrel, and contradicts optimistic projections by the International Energy Agency in Paris, France.
The report also predicts significant falls in gas, coal and uranium production. The group warns that supply shortages could cause "a meltdown in society", leading to scenes of mass unrest, such as those that took place in Burma earlier this month when the government pushed up fuel prices..."

October 22 2007 ~

Wall Street Journal ~ The wagering over $100 oil has begun in earnest. Oil prices, which rose briefly above $90 a barrel Friday, are more likely to head toward $100 than $80 in the next month, according to the number of bets placed by options traders on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The large number of options held to buy crude at $100 a barrel could also act as a pull on prices toward that level. ...

October 8 2007 ~

www.iht.com ~ 'This is an industry in crisis masked by high prices,' " said J. Robinson West, chairman of PFC Energy, an oil industry consulting firm in Washington. "There are no easy barrels left. Th